Pittsfield, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS61 KALY 152317
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
717 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind Advisory issued for parts of western New England and the
Taconics starting late tonight through Tuesday morning to account
for wind gusts up to 50mph with initially south to southeast winds
through the day tomorrow shift to the west-northwest by Tuesday
morning.

A Flood Watch was issued for Litchfield County, CT and Berkshire
County, MA to account for poor drainage flooding and river rises on
main stem rivers and creeks starting late tonight through Tuesday
morning. Latest river forecasts from the Northeast River Forecast
Center show river responses on the Hoosic and Housatonic Rivers due
to 1 to 2.5 inches of rain.

Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) in the Day 2 Convective Outlook
from the Storm Prediction Center was expanded further north/east
into the Capital District, southwest Adirondacks, and the mid-
Hudson Valley where there is a 5% chance for damaging winds
from severe thunderstorms tomorrow into tomorrow night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Moderate confidence for strong, gusty winds tomorrow into
tomorrow night resulting in downed tree branches and isolated
power outages. There is a 50 to 80% chance for wind gusts to
reach or exceed 40mph between 2AM Monday and 2AM Tuesday and a
30 to 60% chance between 2AM Tuesday and 2AM Wednesday.

2) Moderate confidence for periods of rain, heavy at times
tonight into tomorrow night with even a marginal risk for
severe weather mainly for areas near and west of the Hudson
River. The heavy rain falling on top of an already saturated
ground can result in poor drainage and urbanized flooding in
addition to minor river flooding (especially in western New
England).

3) There is a low to medium chance for slippery travel for the
Tuesday morning commute from the Capital District northward due
to wet surfaces potentially refreezing from rapidly cooling
temperatures and rain changing to snow for a brief period Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Latest satellite imagery shows our rapidly intensifying cyclone
in the Central Plains with its attendant mid-level warm front
lifting through the Northeast. We remain mainly dry through 03
UTC tonight as large scale subsidence under the downstream
ridge persists; however, as the sfc warm front start to lift
northward tonight, strengthening southeast winds ahead of it
will result initially upslope driven showers along the south and eastern
slopes of the the eastern Catskills, the southern Greens, and
the southern Adirondacks between 03 - 06 UTC. With sfc temperatures
still around freezing, these initial showers look to fall as
some freezing rain which can lead to slippery travel conditions.
However, still held off on any winter weather advisory given the
higher terrain locations, overnight timing, and general short
duration to any icing. This can handled with a Special Weather
Statement, if needed. Southerly winds ahead of the nearly full
latitude trough extending down the Gulf States will start to
advect moisture from the Gulf into the Northeast overnight with
PWATs surging near 1 inch. An area of shortwaves ahead of the
incoming sfc warm front will promote lift and focus
precipitation into areas of steady rain. This combined with
some elevated instability and showalters dropping towards 0
(especially in western New England) may also support some
pockets of thunderstorms which will be capable of brief heavy
downpours from 06 - 15 UTC.

After 15 - 18 UTC Monday, the sfc warm front should finally lift
northward through eastern NY and western New England with
temperatures turning quite warm rising into the 50s and low 60s
in the warm sector. While a very impressive 50-60kt low level
jet will become directed into the Northeast during the morning
hours, forecast soundings continue to show a sharp low-level
inversion around 925 hPa which should limit mixing. However,
this inversion starts to erode by 18 - 21 UTC and with such a
notable jet in the 925 - 850 hPa layer, we erred on the side of
caution and issued a wind advisory for western New England and
the Taconics starting at 18 UTC Monday which typically
experience strong, gusty winds in these southeast wind regimes
due to downsloping off the Berkshires and southern Greens. We
then expanded the wind advisory into the Greater Capital
District and the eastern Catskills starting at 21 UTC as the
inversion continues to erode. Guidance from the NBM also favors
this timing showing increased probabilities for gusts over 30 -
40mph during this window in these areas. Otherwise, only
expecting isolated to scattered shower activity late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with showers favored in western New
England. Weak elevated instability persist so maintain slight
chance thunderstorm wording through tomorrow afternoon with
brief heavy downpours possible during any storms.

Immediately behind our incoming cold front Monday night, winds
shift sharply to the west and remain quite strong. While the
impressive low level jet will shift into New England as the
front sweeps through the region, forecast soundings show
boundary layer mixing deepening in response to the strong cold
air advection that commences. The top of the mixed layer reaches
40 to even 50kts through Tuesday morning in the wind advisory
areas so that`s why we have our wind advisory going through 15
UTC Tuesday. Probabilistic guidance even shows 30 to 60% chance
for gusts to exceed 40mph 2AM Tues to 2AM Wed with the best
chance for this immediately behind the cold front Monday night
through midday Tuesday. Winds remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon
but gradually weaken as the cyclone exits.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our parent cyclone will deepen further tomorrow afternoon as it
heads into the Great Lakes and becomes negatively tilted. Rapid
height falls ahead of it will spill into the Northeast by
tomorrow evening with the screaming 50-70kt southerly jet
maintaining anomalously high moisture transport (4 to 6
standard deviation above normal per the NAEFS) into the
Northeast. While shower coverage increases tomorrow evening, the
main line of moderate to heavy rain focused immediately ahead
of the approaching cold front looks delayed until 03 - 06 UTC
Tuesday due to the highly amplified flow. Unidirectional flow
parallel to the boundary through a deep layer and low-level
convergence within the mild and highly moist environment will
support efficient warm rain processes. In fact, the 3-hourly
ensemble mean QPF amounts from the HREF range between 0.25 and
0.75" for areas near and west of the Hudson River through 06 UTC
Tuesday. While instability ahead of the front will weaken as the
front shifts into eastern NY Tuesday night, even the limited
100 to 200 J/kg MUCAPE may be enough to support convective
elements and heavy downpours. The unidirectional flow also
means the the heavy rain may linger over a given area for a few
hours, supporting the potential for urban and poor drainage
flooding.

As the front heads east of the Hudson River near/shortly after
06 UTC Tuesday, the heavy rainfall rates looks to diminish as
the main parent cyclone and stronger forcing escapes into
southern Canada. Still expecting moderate rainfall rates but
the probability for heavy rainfall rates decreases as the front
reaches western New England. Total rainfall amounts between late
Sunday and Monday night looks to range between 1 and 2.5 inches
with the highest amounts in western New England and the eastern
Catskills. Issued a flood watch for western MA and NW CT from
late tonight through 12 UTC Tuesday given the 40 - 50% ground
saturation seen in the FLASH guidance overlapped with the
highest QPF amounts, potential for heavy downpours during any
storms and rivers already running high. Main concern will be
poor drainage/urbanized flooded and rises on main stem river and
creeks. While the latest forecasts from the Northeast River
Forecast Center do not show rivers exceeding flood stage, latest
MMEFS guidance shows 10 to 30% chance for minor flood stage on
the Hoosic, Housatonic and Walloomsac Rivers so felt a Flood
Watch helped message the flood potential.

Given the very high shear yet low CAPE environment, we will also
monitor the potential for severe weather along the main cold
front Tuesday night. Latest Day 2 Outlook from SPC expanded the
marginal into our western zones up to the Hudson River; however,
given the overnight timing and limited opportunity to destabilize
the air mass ahead of the front, any QLCS or convective line that
develops will likely weaken as it tracks into eastern NY. It is
hard to ignore the impressive 50kt+ 0-6km deep layer shear but
the lack of instability should dampen the severe potential.
Should any stronger storms reach our western zones, damaging
winds would be the primary hazard.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

As if the flood and gusty wind potential were not enough, we
also need to monitor the potential for rain to change over to
sleet/snow as the front sweeps through the region Monday night.
While the main parent cyclone escapes into southern Canada,
strong upper level divergence looks to aid in the development of
a secondary low along the cold front Monday night. This should
maintain sufficient precipitation behind the boundary as
temperatures rapidly drop between 03 and 09 UTC Tuesday. Latest
probabilistic guidance shows the highest chance for at least a
half inch of snow in the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
northern and eastern Catskills with values ranging 40 to 80%
while values drop to 20 to 40% in the Taconics, higher terrain
areas of western MA, and southern VT. Probabilities lower to
only a 10 to 25% chance in valley areas from the Capital
District into the Upper Hudson Valley but this can still lead to
slippery travel for the Tuesday morning commute as the wet
ground can quickly refreeze and stay icy underneath even minor
snow accumulations. Morning low temperatures by Tuesday morning
look to drop into the mid to upper 20s regionwide.

Should precipitation end earlier, there may not be enough QPF
when temperatures cool enough to support a transition to
snow/sleet. This would lower snowfall amounts on the backside,
especially in valley areas, but it would not reduce the
refreeze and slippery travel potential as rainfall ends by 06
- 09 UTC. There may not be enough time for the gusty westerly
winds to dry out surfaces before temperatures drop into the 20s
by early Tuesday A.M.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Strengthening southerly flow will result
in gradually increasing moisture tonight, with cigs initially
at VFR levels, decreasing to MVFR between 03z-05z, then IFR
around 07z-11z. A period of -RA will become likely from around
07z-13z as a disturbance approaching from the south and moves
through. Then, occasional -SHRA will be around much of the day,
with conditions expected to remain IFR through 00z Tuesday. A
line of SHRA with embedded TSRA containing strong winds and
downpours are expected to move through after the 24 hour TAF
period Monday evening.

Will mention low level wind shear through the entire 24 hour TAF
period, as a southerly jet overhead gradually strengthens from
40-45 kt initially to around 50-60 kt. Surface winds will be
mainly southeast and varying between 5-15 kt with occasional
gusts of 20-25 kt, increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
developing Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Definite SHRA...SHSN...RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for
     CTZ001-013.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ054-
     061-066.
     Wind Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ048>053-058-063-084.
MA...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for
     MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07